Data: Altos Research · Single-Family Homes · lynwisegroup.com · (312) 860-7294
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS WEEK
- Deerfield crossed below MAI 50 for the first time in this entire series — a real inflection point after three consecutive weeks of decline from 59.
- Northbrook hit a new high of MAI 67, its strongest reading yet, even as inventory grew.
- Highland Park's Altos narrative turned explicitly negative this week: "we're already seeing prices move lower."
- Glencoe had its second week of broad-based absorption — all four price tiers sold at least one home — while its relist rate climbed to 42%.
- Lake Forest's new listings are entering at a median of $3.9 million, dramatically above the $2.55 million market median, signaling an unusual push of ultra-luxury inventory.
- Rates remain steady in the mid-6% range for the sixth consecutive week.
THIS WEEK, THREE STORIES STAND OUT
Rather than walking community by community in the same order every week, this week's data sorts naturally into three storylines that connect across all five markets. Here is the North Shore through that lens.
STORY ONE: THE TIPPING POINT — DEERFIELD CROSSES BELOW 50
Three weeks ago, Deerfield's MAI was 59. Two weeks ago, 52. Last week, 50 — sitting exactly on the line. This week it crossed to 48, officially dipping below that threshold. We are still labeling Deerfield as a "Strong Seller's Market" but buyers are starting to have more leverage.
What makes Deerfield worth watching closely is — fifteen percent of listings saw price increases this week and eighteen percent saw cuts. Both numbers are elevated, and both are happening at the same time, in the same market, in the same week. The sellers that price and list their home intelligently are definitely finding strength and, the ones that don't, find resistance.
The relist rate tells the most encouraging part of this story: just 13%, the lowest of any community we track and a sharp drop from recent weeks. Deerfield sellers are not getting it wrong as often as sellers elsewhere. The entry segment at $566,500 had three new listings, but the segment just above it, around $812,500, had five new listings and three absorbed in just seven days — among the fastest-moving segments anywhere on the North Shore this week.
For sellers: This is the moment to act, not the moment to wait and see. If your home sits in the $750K to $850K range, the data says you have real momentum behind you right now. Above $1.1M, there is still real momentum, but maybe a little more negotiation than you would have a month ago.
For buyers: Deerfield is the most genuinely balanced market on the North Shore this week. Growing inventory, a falling MAI, and sellers who are pricing realistically — reflected in that 13% relist rate — make this a rare moment where buyer and seller interests are roughly in equilibrium rather than tilted hard one way.
For first-time buyers: The $566,500 entry tier had zero absorption this week despite three new listings — the first real opening at the bottom of the Deerfield market in over a month. If this price range is your target, you have more room to evaluate than you have had recently.
STORY TWO: THE WIDENING GAP — NORTHBROOK ACCELERATES WHILE HIGHLAND PARK STALLS
Northbrook and Highland Park sit a few miles apart and serve overlapping buyer pools, which makes the divergence between them this week particularly notable.
Northbrook posted its highest MAI yet at 67, surpassing even its previous high of 66 two weeks ago. The market continues to get hotter, with more sales demand and fewer homes listed driving a long run of increasing prices that shows no sign of changing. What stands out in the segment data is the entry tier at $674,500 — one new listing against four absorbed. Four buyers competing for supply that barely exists. The mid-tier at $1.125M told a similar story: two new, one absorbed, in just ten days.
Highland Park, despite a still-respectable MAI of 53, received its most cautionary narrative in weeks: the market has been cooling as more homes become available and demand lessens, and prices are already moving lower as a result — with the explicit warning that this trend is likely to continue, especially if the index falls further. The relist rate sits at 45%, still the highest of any community we track even after a slight improvement from last week's 47%. Nearly half the market has already been through one failed attempt at the current pricing reality.
For sellers: If you are deciding between similar homes in these two communities, the data is unambiguous about which market currently favors you more. Northbrook rewards almost any reasonably priced listing right now. Highland Park requires real pricing discipline — the 45% relist figure should weigh heavily on how you approach your number.
For buyers: Highland Park currently offers more genuine negotiating room than Northbrook, where a four-to-one absorption ratio at entry level leaves little room to maneuver. If you have flexibility between these two communities, Highland Park's cooling conditions may serve your interests better right now.
For first-time buyers: Northbrook's entry segment is the most competitive on the North Shore this week — be ready to move same-day. Highland Park's entry tier at $539,999 absorbed one home against three new listings, a far more comfortable ratio that gives first-time buyers actual time to evaluate.
STORY THREE: THE LUXURY REPRICING — GLENCOE FINDS ITS FOOTING WHILE LAKE FOREST GOES BIGGER
Glencoe had its second week in the past month where all four price segments absorbed at least one home — a meaningful signal of breadth after a long stretch of thin, inconsistent activity. The relist rate climbed to 42%, evidence that the market is still working through prior overpricing, but the fact that every tier transacted simultaneously suggests buyers are engaging across the full spectrum rather than concentrating in just one price point.
Lake Forest told a very different story. The median price of new listings jumped to $3.9 million — more than 50% above the $2.55 million market median — an unusual signal that ultra-luxury sellers are testing this market even as the broader MAI sits at just 40. The price cut rate climbed to 24%, the highest we have recorded in Lake Forest, while only the entry and lower-mid segments saw any real absorption. The top tier, despite that surge of new $3.9M-range supply, had zero homes sell this week.
For sellers: In Glencoe, the broad absorption this week is a genuinely encouraging sign — price realistically and you are likely to find a buyer somewhere in the current pool. In Lake Forest, the disconnect between where new listings are entering and where buyers are actually transacting could not be clearer. Pricing at or near the top of the market right now means competing against almost no buyer activity.
For buyers: Lake Forest above $2.75M remains one of the most buyer-favorable environments on the entire North Shore. Zero absorption at the top combined with a fresh wave of high-priced new listings means sellers up there are increasingly motivated, whether they realize it yet or not.
For first-time buyers: Neither Glencoe nor Lake Forest functions as a traditional entry-level market, but Lake Forest's $950,000 tier absorbed one home in 35 days this week with zero new competition — worth watching if this community is a long-term goal.
MORTGAGE UPDATE
The 30-year fixed rate remains steady in the mid-6% range for the sixth consecutive week. At this point the stability itself has become the story. Buyers are no longer pricing in the possibility of a near-term rate drop into their decisions, which means the activity we are seeing in entry and mid-tier segments across every community is being driven by genuine demand rather than rate speculation. That is a healthier signal for the second half of the year than anything a rate cut could provide.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Three storylines, five communities, one underlying truth: the North Shore market is not moving in one direction right now. It is sorting itself by tier and by community in ways that reward people who understand the specifics rather than the headlines.
Deerfield's crossing below MAI 50 is the number to watch most closely over the next two to three weeks. Northbrook's acceleration shows no sign of slowing. Highland Park's cooling is real and confirmed. And the luxury markets are sorting themselves into the communities where sellers have adjusted to reality and the communities still catching up to it.
Know which story applies to your situation — and act with that specific knowledge, not last month's assumptions.
Be Wise About the Market. Questions about what this week's data means for your home or your search? The Lyn Wise Group is here.
Lyn Wise Group | www.lynwisegroup.com | (312) 860-7294
Data sourced from Altos Research. Updated every Tuesday.
