Week of June 16, 2026 · Data: Altos Research · Single-Family Homes
WHAT IS THE MARKET ACTION INDEX?
Before we get into this week's data, a quick note for newer readers on the number you'll see throughout this report.
The Market Action Index — MAI — is the single most useful number in real estate data. It answers one question: how does the current rate of sales compare to available inventory? Think of it as a market temperature gauge.
- Above 50 = Seller's Market. Demand is outpacing supply. Sellers have leverage.
- Below 50 = Cooling. The balance is shifting toward buyers.
- Below 30 = Buyer's Market (Altos Research threshold). Buyers have real leverage.
The MAI doesn't just tell you where the market is today — it points to where prices are headed next. A rising MAI signals price increases coming. A falling MAI signals price softening ahead. It is a leading indicator, not a lagging one. That is why we track it every week.
WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK
Four weeks ago we called this market "divergent." Three weeks ago: "momentum building." Two weeks ago: "a line crossed." Last week: "recalibrating." This week the story has a new chapter — and it runs in two directions at once.
Northbrook surged back to MAI 66 — its highest reading in this entire cycle — with inventory shrinking to just 28 homes and the mid-market absorbing eight homes against a single new listing. Eight to one. That is not a market. That is a scramble.
Meanwhile Lake Forest's narrative flipped back to explicitly buyer-friendly language — "demand is low, prices have begun moving lower" — with three of four price segments showing zero absorption. And Deerfield, which has been one of the steadiest seller's markets we track, is showing signs of cooling that warrant watching.
The gap between our strongest and softest communities now spans 27 MAI points. The decisions people make this week look very different depending on which community they're focused on.
MAI 66 · Strong Seller's Market · Inventory: 28 homes · Median DOM: 25 days
The number of the week — and possibly the number of this entire cycle — is eight.
In Northbrook's mid-market segment around $1.1M, eight homes were absorbed against a single new listing this week. One home came to market. Eight sold. That kind of absorption ratio does not happen in a market that is merely healthy. It happens in a market with a meaningful shortage of supply against intense demand.
The MAI hit 66 — the highest reading we have tracked in any of our five communities since we began this series. Inventory shrank to 28 homes. The narrative is unambiguous: the market continues to get hotter, more sales demand and fewer homes listed have driven a long run of increasing prices, and current levels show no sign of that trend reversing.
What makes this week even more striking is the spread between new listing prices and the overall market. New listings are entering at a median of $639,900 — less than half of the $1,674,950 market median. That gap tells you something important: the most accessible inventory in Northbrook is being absorbed almost immediately, while the premium tier attracts premium buyers. The $3.15M luxury segment also absorbed one home and only had one new listing — so even at the top of the market, supply and demand are balanced.
The entry segment at $525,000 had four new listings and three absorbed — the most supply this community has seen at the entry level in weeks, giving first-time buyers a genuine moment of opportunity.
What this means if you're a seller: The data does not get more favorable than this. A MAI of 66 with 28 homes available and an eight-to-one absorption ratio in the most active segment is a market that will reward you — but only if you show up prepared. Pricing, presentation, and timing are everything. Homes that are priced right are not just selling — they are being competed for.
What this means if you're a buyer: This is the most competitive environment we have documented this cycle. Pre-approval is not optional. Knowing your ceiling before you walk into a showing is not optional. Working with an agent who has relationships in this market is not optional. At 25 days median, the clock starts the moment something hits the market.
What this means if you're a first-time buyer: The $525K entry segment had four new listings this week — the most supply at entry level in months. If Northbrook is your target community, this is the most favorable window you have had. Move before it closes.
HIGHLAND PARK · IL 60035
MAI 56 · Strong Seller's Market · Inventory: 34 homes · Median DOM: 42 days
Highland Park's momentum is back. The MAI climbed from 54 to 56, inventory decreased to 34 homes, and the narrative said something this week that it has not said in several weeks: prices have recently resumed their climb.
Three percent of listings saw price increases — sellers raising their asking prices because the market is supporting it. The entry segment at $624,500 had four new listings and five absorbed — buyers moving faster than supply at the most accessible price point. The mid segment at $1.179M absorbed five homes against one new listing.
The number that deserves careful attention is 38% relisted. That is the second-highest relist rate across all five markets this week. What it tells you is that Highland Park is a bifurcated market — two very different experiences depending on which side of the pricing line you're on. The homes selling in three days at entry level and the homes sitting for 98 days in the upper tier are both in Highland Park, and they have almost nothing in common except the zip code.
What this means if you're a seller: The market is genuinely back in your favor and prices are moving higher. But the 38% relist rate is a reminder that this market punishes optimistic pricing with brutal efficiency. The sellers winning right now entered at the right price. The ones in that 38% are learning that lesson expensively.
What this means if you're a buyer: More choice than Northbrook at 34 homes, and a 38% relist rate that contains real opportunity. Some of those relisted properties have sellers who have now recalibrated their expectations. An experienced agent can tell you which ones are worth revisiting. The 42-day median gives you more deliberation time than Northbrook — use it wisely, not indefinitely.
What this means if you're a first-time buyer: The entry segment at $624,500 with a new listings median of $749,000 is the strongest first-time buyer story in Highland Park this cycle. Five absorbed, four new — buyers are outpacing supply even at entry level. Prices are resuming their climb, which means the cost of waiting is real.
DEERFIELD · IL 60015
MAI 52 · Strong Seller's Market · Inventory: 38 homes · Median DOM: 42 days
Deerfield deserves an honest read this week — and honesty means acknowledging that the data is sending a caution signal for the first time in this cycle.
The MAI fell from 56 to 52. Inventory grew to 38 homes. Price cuts are at 21% — the highest in Deerfield in any week we have tracked. The narrative is direct: the market has been cooling as more homes become available and demand lessens. Prices have not yet moved lower — but Altos explicitly warns that if the index falls further toward the buyer's zone, prices will follow.
There is a detail in this week's data worth flagging: the median price of new listings is $1,241,450 — actually above the overall market median of $1,135,720. Sellers entering this market right now are testing price ceilings at exactly the moment buyers are becoming more selective. The mid-segment at $1.25M had three new listings and zero absorbed. That number tells the story plainly.
The good news is that the lower end is still functioning well. The $645K entry segment absorbed five homes against two new listings — more than two buyers for every seller at that price point. Deerfield remains technically a seller's market at MAI 52. The warning is about trajectory, not current status.
What this means if you're a seller: Price with precision, not aspiration. The market will tell you very quickly if you've entered too high — and the cost of that lesson is days on market, price reductions, and potentially a relist. If your home is positioned in the entry to mid range and priced correctly, you still have a strong market behind you. Above $1.25M, the data says buyers are watching, not acting.
What this means if you're a buyer: Deerfield is the most improved buyer environment of the three seller's markets this week. 38 homes, growing inventory, and a mid-market that isn't moving. If you've been priced out or passed over in Deerfield in recent months, the next few weeks may offer an opening that hasn't existed this cycle.
What this means if you're a first-time buyer: The $645K entry point absorbed five homes against two new listings this week — buyers are outpacing supply even as the broader market cools. The entry level is still competitive. Move decisively when you find the right home in that price range.
GLENCOE · IL 60022
MAI 39 · Slight Seller's Advantage · Inventory: 18 homes · Median DOM: 42 days
Glencoe is the quiet surprise of this week — and we almost missed it because the MAI headline (39, down from 40) looks like more of the same softness we have been tracking for several weeks. But look at the segment data and a genuinely different story emerges.
All four price segments absorbed at least one home this week. One at $3.6M. One at $2.9M. One at $2.3M. One at $1.97M. Four transactions across four tiers in a single week — that is the most broad-based activity Glencoe has seen in this entire reporting cycle. With only 18 homes in inventory, four transactions represents a meaningful share of the available market.
The narrative still reads cautiously — prices have not stopped falling — but it also notes that sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks, and that prices could climb if the trend continues. New listings are coming in at $1,997,000 — below the market median of $2,761,525 — suggesting sellers entering the market right now are pricing with more realism. The 39% relist rate is still elevated and reflects the pricing mistakes of prior weeks, but the direction of travel this week points toward improvement.
What this means if you're a seller: This is the first week in over a month where we can say the data in Glencoe is pointing slightly upward rather than sideways or down. Do not mistake one week of broad absorption for a full recovery — the MAI is still well below 50 and prices are still falling. But if you have been waiting for a signal that the market is finding its floor, this week's data is the closest thing to that signal we have seen.
What this means if you're a buyer: Four transactions at four different price points means the market is functioning — but it also means competition returned briefly this week. The 39% relist rate still gives you negotiating leverage on properties that have been sitting. Above $3M, one absorption against zero new listings suggests supply is thin at the top — which means less leverage than you might expect from a softening market.
What this means if you're a first-time buyer: Glencoe's entry point at $1,974,500 absorbed in just 21 days — the fastest DOM of any Glencoe segment. If Glencoe is your aspirational community and you are financially positioned to reach that price point, the current environment — where sellers have been tested by weeks of softness — is one of the more favorable entry windows this market has offered in recent years.
LAKE FOREST · IL 60045
MAI 45 · Strong Seller's Market (label) · Inventory: 37 homes · Median DOM: 49 days
Lake Forest presents the most important disconnect in this week's data. The narrative tells a buyer's market story — "the market has been consistently cool for several weeks, demand levels are low relative to available inventory, prices have begun moving lower." Those two things cannot both be true indefinitely, and the narrative is the more honest read of what is actually happening on the ground.
Median days on market jumped to 49 — the highest of any community we track this week. Three of four price segments had zero absorption. The only tier with any activity was the entry level at $998K, which absorbed three homes in 21 days. New listings are coming in at $1,695,000 — well above where buyers are currently willing to transact. Inventory grew to 37 homes. The 19% price cut rate reflects sellers gradually accepting the reality that buyers are not meeting them where they want to be met.
What this means if you're a seller: This is the market where honest counsel matters most. The label says seller's market. The data says something else. If you are in the upper tiers above $1.75M, zero absorption this week means buyers are not engaging at current prices. The path to a transaction runs through realistic pricing, exceptional presentation, and patience.
What this means if you're a buyer: Lake Forest above $1.75M is a buyer's market in practice regardless of the MAI label. Three of four segments had zero sales this week. Motivated sellers, days on market approaching two months, and prices already moving lower — this is the environment where well-prepared buyers with clear criteria can negotiate outcomes that were not available six months ago. If Lake Forest has been on your list, get your pre-approval current and start the conversation.
What this means if you're a first-time buyer: The $998K entry level absorbed three homes in 21 days — by far the most active tier and the only one with meaningful buyer engagement. For buyers who can reach this price point, Lake Forest's community, schools, and long-term appreciation make entry-level positioning here one of the more compelling value plays on the North Shore right now.
MORTGAGE UPDATE
The 30-year fixed rate continues to hold in the mid-6% range — steady for the fourth consecutive week. At some point stability stops feeling temporary and starts feeling like the new normal, and that psychological shift is now clearly visible in the data. Buyers in Northbrook, Highland Park, and the entry segments of every community we track are making decisions based on value, lifestyle, and market conditions — not waiting for a rate cut that may or may not materialize. That is the behavior of a market that has matured past the initial shock of higher rates and is operating on fundamentals again. For sellers, that means demand is real and durable. For buyers, it means the competition is equally real and equally durable.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Two numbers define this week's North Shore market. The first is 66 — Northbrook's MAI, the highest reading we have tracked this cycle, with eight homes absorbed against one new listing in the most active segment. The second is 49 — Lake Forest's median days on market, with prices already moving lower and three of four segments producing zero transactions.
Twenty-seven points apart on the same North Shore.
But here is the thread that connects them: in both markets — and in every market between them — the people achieving the best outcomes are the ones who understand the data at the segment level, not just the market level. The Northbrook buyer who moves in 25 days because they were prepared. The Lake Forest seller who prices at the tier that is actually transacting. The Highland Park first-time buyer who knew that the entry segment was outpacing new supply and made their move.
Data does not make decisions. People do. But the people with the best data make better decisions — and that is why we publish this every single Tuesday.
Be Wise About the Market.
Questions about what this week's data means for your home or your search? The Lyn Wise Group is here — reach out directly.
Lyn Wise Group | www.lynwisegroup.com | (312) 860-7294
